Time lag in the climate change, war, and population relationship: A quantitative analysis

Harry F. LEE, Lincoln FOK, David D. ZHANG

Research output: Contribution to journalArticles

Abstract

Wars became more frequent in a cold climate at the macro-historical scale. However, war peaks and their associated population collapses appeared ~20–30 years after the commencement of a cold climate. Following Zhang et al.'s (2007a) conceptual model, this paper sought to further examine the climate-war-population time lag by using mathematical means. Result was: the relatively slow natural population adjustment to the climate-induced fluctuations in agricultural production generated the time lag between the climate, war, and population cycles in historical agrarian societies. This finding may lend a new dimension to the classic Malthusianism and have current implications to the less developed countries near the tropics. Copyright © 2009 Taylor & Francis.
Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)83-94
JournalAsian Geographer
Volume26
Issue number1-2
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 2009

Citation

Lee, H. F., Fok, L., & Zhang, D. D. (2009). Time lag in the climate-war relationship. Asian Geographer, 26(1-2), 83-94. doi: 10.1080/10225706.2009.9684145

Keywords

  • Climate change
  • Wars
  • Population feedback
  • Time lag
  • Agrarian societies

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