Risk assessment in prospective performance prediction for subcontractors

This paper suggests predicting and comparing prospective performances of subcontractors for better allocation of resources prior to the commencement of the construction phase of a project. A plausible way is to calculate the expected value (i.e. mean value) using the past performance data. Using past data to predict the future, however, incurs a certain degree of risk. In order to increase the accuracy of estimation, risk assessment should be incorporated. Therefore, this paper introduces a method, which is simple to use. The method consists of seven major steps: (1) identification of the risk assessment problem; (2) development of assessment criteria and associated scales; (3) specification of the time horizon of interest; (4) collection of data from subcontractors; (5) application of risk possibility assessment; (6) construction of the risk profile and (7) response to risks based on management preferences. An example is demonstrated to illustrate how risk assessment can be incorporated into predicting and comparing subcontractors’ performances. The bootstrap method has been introduced for obtaining more accurate estimates when a small sample is used. Copyright © 2014 Taylor & Francis.