Price responses of grain market under climate change in pre-industrial western Europe by ARX modelling

Qing PEI, David Dian ZHANG, Jingjing XU

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingChapter

Abstract

In academia, there are few studies adopted ARX modelling on historical datasets. Recently, the studies on notable effects of climatic changes upon past agrarian economy are paid by more attention. Here, this study first time seriously explores the relationship between climatic change and the grain market at a macro-scale in pre-industrial Western Europe by ARX modelling. The results show that a cold phase would raise grain price through lowering the supply in the grain market. Furthermore, according to the simulations on short- and long-term climate change, the long lasting climate change could be more disastrous to society than short-term change. Last, the application in the study proves ARX modelling is also a feasible choice in the field of historical research. Copyright © 2014 SCITEPRESS (Science and Technology Publications, Lda.).

Original languageEnglish
Title of host publicationProceedings of the 4th International Conference on Simulation and Modeling Methodologies, Technologies and Applications - Volume 1: MSCCEC
EditorsMohammad S. OBAIDAT, Janusz KACPRZYK, Tuncer ÖREN
Place of PublicationVienna, Austria
PublisherSciTePress
Pages811-817
ISBN (Electronic)9789897580383
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 2014

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climate change
market
modeling
science and technology
Western Europe
price
simulation
cold
economy
effect
historical research
society

Citation

Pei, Q., Zhang, D. D., & Xu, J. (2014). Price responses of grain market under climate change in pre-industrial western Europe by ARX modelling. In M. S. Obaidat, J. Kacprzyk, & T. Ören (Eds.), Proceedings of the 4th International Conference on Simulation and Modeling Methodologies, Technologies and Applications - Volume 1: MSCCEC (pp. 811-817). Vienna, Austria: SciTePress.

Keywords

  • ARX modelling
  • Climate change
  • Grain market
  • Pre-industrial era
  • Western Europe