Migration for survival under natural disasters: A reluctant and passive choice for agriculturalists in historical China

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Abstract

This study quantitatively investigates the long-term dynamics of the association between natural disasters and the migration of agriculturists in historical China. Population pressure is also studied because migration is a population density-dependent phenomenon. This study has adopted correlation analysis, multivariate linear/Poisson regression analyses, and Granger causality analysis to verify the linkages of natural disaster-migration and population-migration in historical China by collecting updated datasets. This study is the first attempt to reveal that the duration effects of natural disasters on the migration of agriculturalists are short-term and almost instantaneous. Although the agrarian society has a low buffering capacity, the effects of natural disasters within a short-term scale could be relieved to some extent. However, population pressure can push migration on a long-term scale despite its limited forcefulness. Copyright © 2017 Science China Press and Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg.
Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)2089-2096
JournalScience China Earth Sciences
Volume60
Issue number12
Early online dateAug 2017
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - Dec 2017

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natural disaster
population pressure
population migration
buffering
multivariate analysis
population density
effect

Citation

Pei, Q. (2017). Migration for survival under natural disasters: A reluctant and passive choice for agriculturalists in historical China. Science China Earth Sciences, 60(12), 2089–2096.

Keywords

  • Natural disasters
  • Agriculturalists’ migration
  • Population pressure
  • Empirical analysis
  • Historical China