Merit-order effects of day-ahead wind generation forecast in the hydro-rich Pacific Northwest

Chi Keung WOO, Jack MOORE, Brendan SCHNEIDERMAN, Arne OLSON, Ryan A. JONES, Tony S. T. HO, Nate TOYAMA, Jianhui WANG, Jay W. ZARNIKAU

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Abstract

An assessment of the performance of the day-ahead wind generation forecast published by Bonneville Power Administration in the hydro-rich Pacific Northwest region finds BPA's daytime forecast unbiased, but not the nighttime forecast. Using market-price regressions to estimate the day-ahead merit-order effects of BPA's forecast finds that the merit-order effect estimates do not materially depend on whether the forecast or actual MW are used, as the forecast and actual wind MW data are highly correlated. Finally, the merit-order effect estimates are small, implying small short-term price-related benefits to end users from wind generation development. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc.
Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)52-62
JournalThe Electricity Journal
Volume28
Issue number9
Early online dateOct 2015
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - Nov 2015

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Citation

Woo, C. K., Moore, J., Schneiderman, B., Olson, A., Jones, R., Ho, T., et al. (2015). Merit-order effects of day-ahead wind generation forecast in the hydro-rich Pacific Northwest. The Electricity Journal, 28(9), 52-62.