An assessment of the performance of the day-ahead wind generation forecast published by Bonneville Power Administration in the hydro-rich Pacific Northwest region finds BPA's daytime forecast unbiased, but not the nighttime forecast. Using market-price regressions to estimate the day-ahead merit-order effects of BPA's forecast finds that the merit-order effect estimates do not materially depend on whether the forecast or actual MW are used, as the forecast and actual wind MW data are highly correlated. Finally, the merit-order effect estimates are small, implying small short-term price-related benefits to end users from wind generation development. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc.
|Journal||The Electricity Journal|
|Early online date||Oct 2015|
|Publication status||Published - Nov 2015|