Long-term relationship between climate change and nomadic migration in historical China

Qing PEI, David D. ZHANG

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

18 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

We investigated the relationship between a 2000-year history of nomadic migration and climate change in historical China. By using updated data and statistical methods, the study solved several unanswered questions from past research about the relationship between climate change and the nomadic migration, especially over the long term and on a large spatial scale. The study used correlation analysis, multiple regression analysis, and Granger causality analysis to quantitatively verify the following causal pathway: climate change → nomadic migration → conflicts between pastoralists and agriculturalists. In the long term, precipitation was a statistically more influential factor on nomadic migration than temperature in historical China. How climate change affects the migration of nomadic minorities in the long term is theoretically explained based on the Push-Pull model as well as statistical evidence. Copyright © 2014 by the author(s).
Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)765-780
JournalEcology and Society
Volume19
Issue number2
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 2014

Fingerprint

climate change
multiple regression
regression analysis
history
temperature
analysis

Citation

Pei, Q., & Zhang, D. D. (2014). Long-term relationship between climate change and nomadic migration in historical China. Ecology and Society, 19(2), 765-780. doi: 10.5751/ES-06528-190268.

Keywords

  • Climate change
  • Historical China
  • Nomadic migration
  • Pastoralist-agriculturalist conflict
  • Quantitative analysis