Efficient Bayesian inference for a defect rate based on completely censored data

Man Ho Alpha LING, H. K. T. NG, X. SHANG, S. J. BAE

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlespeer-review

Abstract

This paper discusses the challenging issues that reliability practitioners face in conducting destructive tests that lead to completely censored lifetimes, especially in estimating the defect rate of products. Manufacturers need to measure the defect rate for quality control purposes, but obtaining enough defective devices for accurate estimation is not easy when the defect rate is relatively low. To address the issues, a Bayesian approach for estimating the defect rate is proposed in this paper. The proposed method is devised to make up for the heavy computational burdens of the Metropolis-Hastings algorithm. To quantify the uncertainty in the Bayesian estimation, a nonparametric bootstrap technique is employed to construct a credible interval for the defect rate. The performance of the proposed method is evaluated through a variety of Monte Carlo simulation studies. The efficiency of the proposed Bayesian estimation procedure is validated using a real-world dataset of return-springs in DC motor systems under an accelerated destructive degradation test. Copyright © 2024 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)123-136
JournalApplied Mathematical Modelling
Volume128
Early online dateJan 2024
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - Apr 2024

Citation

Ling, M. H., Ng, H. K. T., Shang, X., & Bae, S. J. (2024). Efficient Bayesian inference for a defect rate based on completely censored data. Applied Mathematical Modelling, 128, 123-136. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apm.2024.01.022

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