Dynamic causality analysis of COVID-19 pandemic risk and oil market changes

Mike K. P. SO, Jacky N. L. CHAN, Man Ying Amanda CHU

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlespeer-review

Abstract

Crude oil draws attention in recent research as its demand may indicate world economic growth trend in the post-COVID-19 era. In this paper, we study the dynamic lead–lag relationship between the COVID-19 pandemic and crude oil future prices. We perform rolling-sample tests to evidence whether two pandemic risk scores derived from network analysis, including a preparedness risk score and a severity risk score, Granger-cause changes in oil future prices. In our empirical analysis, we observe 49% to 60% of days in 2020 to 2021 during which the pandemic scores significantly affected oil futures. We also find an asymmetric lead–lag relationship, indicating that there is a tendency for oil futures to move significantly when the pandemic is less severe but not when it is more severe. This study adopts preparedness risk score and severity risk score as proxy variables to measure the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic risk on oil market. The asymmetric lead–lag behavior between pandemic risk and oil future prices provides insights on oil demand and consumption during the COVID-19 pandemic. Copyright © 2022 by the authors.
Original languageEnglish
Article number240
JournalJournal of Risk and Financial Management
Volume15
Issue number6
Early online date27 May 2022
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - Jun 2022

Citation

So, M. K. P., Chan, J. N. L., & Chu, A. M. Y. (2022). Dynamic causality analysis of COVID-19 pandemic risk and oil market changes. Journal of Risk and Financial Management, 15(6). Retrieved from https://doi.org/10.3390/jrfm15060240

Keywords

  • Coronavirus
  • Financial contagion
  • Financial risk management
  • Granger causality test
  • Network analysis
  • Pandemic risk

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