Conditional quantile estimation for hysteretic autoregressive models

Degao LI, Ruochen ZENG, Liwen ZHANG, Wai Keung LI, Guodong LI

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlespeer-review

Abstract

The phenomenon of hysteresis has been observed in many economic time series, especially in unemployment rates. To study the hysteretic patterns at different quantiles, this study considers a conditional quantile estimation for hysteretic autoregressive models, and derives its asymptotic properties. Simulation experiments are conducted to evaluate the finite-sample performance of our method, and its usefulness is further demonstrated by an analysis of the growth rates of unemployment rates. Copyright © 2020 Institute of Statistical Science, Academia Sinica.
Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)809-827
JournalStatistica Sinica
Volume30
Issue number2
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - Apr 2020

Citation

Li, D., Zeng, R., Zhang, L., Li, W. K., & Li, G. (2020). Conditional quantile estimation for hysteretic autoregressive models. Statistica Sinica, 30(2), 809-827. doi: 10.5705/ss.202017.0324

Keywords

  • Autoregression
  • Conditional quantile estimation
  • Hysteretic model
  • Threshold model

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