Climate-driven changes to the spatial–temporal pattern of endangered tree Toona ciliata Roem. in China

Climate change poses major threats to global biodiversity, with a significant bearing on predicting potential suitable areas of plant species for future conservation. This study aimed to predict the potential suitable distribution areas of the endangered Toona ciliata under current and future climate change, providing the scientific-objective basis for enhanced species conservation and utilization. Adopting the Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) approach, we predicted the valuable tree’s distribution under current and future conditions (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP5-8.5) in China. The model incorporated seven bioclimatic variables, widely used in cognate studies and significantly influencing current T. ciliata distribution. The fitted model yielded high-quality (AUC = 0.947) and biologically meaningful results, identifying temperature as the most critical limiting factor, especially the minimum temperature of the coldest month. The MaxEnt simulation predicted excellent suitability habitats under the current climate consistent with the current actual distribution, remaining in China’s middle-subtropical region. Under three future climate-change scenarios, the model predicted an increase in excellent suitability areas. However, predicting future fragmentation of the current excellent range should raise concerns. MaxEnt can use bioclimatic data to pinpoint the optimal locations for species introduction, ex situ conservation, and cultivation of T. ciliata in China and other parts of the world. Copyright © 2023 The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer-Verlag GmbH Austria, part of Springer Nature.