Analyzing and predicting LUCC and carbon storage changes in Xinjiang’s arid ecosystems under the carbon neutrality goal

Land use/cover change (LUCC) significantly alters the carbon storage capacity of ecosystems with a profound impact on global climate change. The influence of land use changes on carbon storage capacity and the projection of future carbon stock changes under different scenarios are essential for achieving carbon peak and neutrality goals. This study applied the PLUS-InVEST model to predict the land use pattern in China’s arid Xinjiang Region in 2020–2050. The model assessed the carbon stock under four scenarios. Analysis of the historical LUCC data showed that the carbon storage in Xinjiang in 2000–2020 in five-year intervals was 85.69 × 10⁸, 85.79 × 10⁸, 85.87 × 10⁸, 86.01 × 10⁸, and 86.71 × 10⁸ t. The rise in carbon sequestration capacity in the study area, attributable to the expansion of cropland, water, and unused land areas, brought a concomitant increment in the regional carbon storage by 1.03 × 10⁸ t. However, prediction results for 2030–2050 showed that carbon storage capacity under the four scenarios would decrease by 0.11 × 10⁸ and increase by 1.2 × 10⁸, 0.98 × 10⁸ t, and 1.28 × 10⁸ t, respectively. The findings indicate that different land transfer modes will significantly affect Xinjiang’s carbon storage quantity, distribution, and trend. This research informs the past, present, and future of carbon storage in arid ecosystems of Xinjiang. It offers a reference for Xinjiang’s development planning and informs the efforts to achieve the carbon peak and neutrality goals. Copyright © 2024 by the authors.