歷史氣候變化和社會經濟發展的因果關係實證研究評述

本文根據近年來在歷史氣候變化和人類社會經濟發展領域中因果關係的實證研究，特別是綜合現有的定量研究成果，分析了歷史上氣候變化與人類社會經濟發展的聯系。結果表明，氣候變化在最終和基本層面影響著社會經濟發展。而且無論是長期還是短期的數據分析，氣候短期波動或長期變化都會在社會經濟發展中有所反映。從理論和方法學兩個方面，這些研究成果促進了對氣候變化影響下人類社會經濟發展的認識，在全世界範圍內都有學術借鑒意義和政策指導價值。
The article reviews current studies in the field of causality analysis on the association between paleo-climate change and socio-economic dynamics, particularly from the quantitative results and achievements. These findings have justified the strong linkage between paleo-climate change and socio-economic development. Climate change has been proved as the fundamental factor affecting socio-economic process. No matter in the long term or short term, climate variation and climate change both could exert the effects on the human society. This progress has contributed to the knowledge on climate change and socio-economic development from both theoretical and methodological aspects. The research in this field has shown its value as the reference for policymakers in addition to its academic contribution. Copyright © 2017 中國氣象局國家氣候中心.