小冰期絲綢之路地區氣候變化與戰爭關係的定量分析

絲綢之路地跨中國、中亞與中東地區,歷史上這幾個區域也是氣候敏感區域。然而，在現有的研究中，較少對這三大區域的氣候變化與戰爭發生的特徵進行分析和比較，特別是缺少相關的定量分析。因此，本文收集了西元1400～1800年北半球的氣候重建數據和中國、中亞與中東這3個區域的歷史戰爭資料，通過皮爾遜相關分析、偏相關分析、回歸分析和格蘭傑因果分析等定量方法分析和比較了該3個地區的“氣候-戰爭” 關係。結果表明：中國與中亞地區在氣候變冷時期，有更多的戰爭爆發；中東地區由於緯度低而受氣候變冷的影響小，但溫度上升帶來的乾旱往往對應於更多戰爭。3個地區的不同定量結果反映了在以農牧業經濟為主的傳統社會背景下，絲綢之路所經地區不同的氣候衝擊與社會響應，提醒我們更加注意不同區域的氣候敏感性。此外，本文的結果進一步體現了當代氣候暖化可能帶來的潛在威脅，為更好地理解、解決世界範圍內的氣候安全問題提供歷史定量依據。
The Silk Road passes through China, Central Asia and the Middle East, where they are also sensitive to climate change in history. However, in the current research, there is little analysis and comparison of the characteristics of climate change and war in these three regions, especially the lack of related quantitative approach. Therefore, in this paper we collected the climatic reconstruction data in the Northern Hemisphere and historical war data in the three regions during 1400~1800 A.D., which belongs to the Little Ice Age, the coldest period over the last millennium. In addition, the data on population size of the above regions were retrieved for facilitating the comparison of the relationship between climate change and human society in different regions along the Silk Road. Then, several statistical methods, such as (partial) correlation analysis, regression analysis as well as Granger causality analysis, were employed to analyze and examine the “climate-war” nexus. The results show that there are more wars in China and Central Asia during climate cooling owing to cooling-led ecological-environmental degradation; in the Middle East, due to its location at lower latitude, it is less affected by climate cooling, whereas drought induced by rising temperature usually corresponds to more wars. Besides, climate change may be overlaid with population pressure in the Middle East and Central Asia, and both may synergistically have an effect on the outbreak of war. In summary, the different quantitative results of the three regions reflect the different climatic impacts and social responses along the Silk Road under the background of traditional societies dominated by agriculture and animal husbandry, which remind us to pay more attention to the climate sensitivity in different regions. Furthermore, the findings of this study reveal the potential threat possibly brought by contemporary global warming and provide historical quantitative evidence for better understanding and tackling the issue of climate security around the world. Copyright © 2022 中國第四紀研究委員會;中國科學院地質與地球物理研究所.