唐代治亂分期與氣候變化的關係

將唐代定量劃分為治世與亂世5個時期，探討了唐代治亂分期與氣候變化的關係。治、亂世的劃分標準參考一套系統的戰爭數據集，並用單因素方差分析的方法驗證各項數據指標在治世與亂世間的差異性，從而說明唐代治、亂世分期的合理性。治、亂世分期結果如下：618—626年為亂世，627—742年為治世，743—784年為亂世，785—859年為治世，860—907年為亂世。方差分析的結果顯示，除了總邊境戰爭外，氣候變化、總戰爭、反叛戰爭、進攻型邊境戰爭、防御型邊境戰爭、農業豐歉等級和人口增長率在治世與亂世之間均表現出顯著差異。用戰爭定量體現唐代社會治、亂世變化，探討氣候變化與社會治、亂的關係即是探討氣候變化與戰爭的關係，亂世的主要戰爭類型是反叛戰爭和防御型邊境戰爭，治世的主要戰爭類型是進攻型邊境戰爭，相關分析結果表明，唐代溫度降低、降水減少的時期，農業收成減少導致資源供給不足，更容易發生反叛戰爭；溫度暖期、降水充沛的時期，農業產量提高，刺激了快速增長的人口，在技術改善能力有限、土地資源一定的情況下，更易發生以對外擴張為目的的邊境戰爭，因此氣候變化是影響唐代社會治、亂變化的重要原因之一。
This paper quantitatively divides the Tang dynasty into five prosperous and chaotic social periods, and discusses the relationship between social division and climate change. The criteria for determining prosperity and chaos is refers to a set of systematic war data. In order to verify the reasonableness of the division, we applied 1-way-ANOVA to test the differences of each variable index between prosperity and chaos. The results of social division are as follows: From 618 AD to 626 AD, and from 743 AD to 784 AD, as well as from 860 AD to 907 AD were the chaotic periods; while from 627 AD to 742 AD, and from 785 to 859 AD were the prosperous periods. The results of 1-way-ANOVA show that, climate change, general wars, rebellions, offensive border wars, defensive border wars, agricultural harvests, and population growth rates are all significantly different between prosperity and chaos, except the general external wars. War data were used to quantitatively represent the social changes in the Tang dynasty. In turbulent periods, the main types of wars are rebellions and defensive border wars, while the main type of wars in prosperous periods are offensive border wars. To explore the relationship between climate change and social division means to make clear the relationship between climate change and wars. The results of correlation analysis show that during the periods of lower temperature and less precipitation, the decrease of agricultural harvest lead to the shortage of resources supply, so that the likelihood of rebellions increase; while during the warm periods with abundant rainfall, increasing agricultural harvest stimulates rapid population growth. With the limitations of technology and land resources, offensive border wars for expansion are more likely to occur. Copyright © 2020 中國石油大學；中國礦物巖石地球化學學會.