作為溯因推理研究方法的因果過程追蹤及其在公共政策研究中的應用

公共政策的學術研究同其他社會科學一樣，都追求對因果機制的解釋。然而，現實世界的公共政策過程往往非常複雜，傳統的量化研究方法很難完全解釋因果機制。近年來，因果過程追蹤(Causal Process Tracing，簡稱CPT)作為一種基於溯因推理邏輯的實證研究方法，在多方法研究(multi-method research)中得到越來越廣泛的應用。該方法使用嚴密的案例內推斷來追蹤事件，透過過程分析撬開將原因和結果聯系起來的因果機制，具有識別並糾正虛假因果關聯以及遺漏變量偏誤等內生性問題等方法論優勢，有助於彌合質性研究和量化研究的鴻溝。因果過程追蹤方法不受意識形態的限制，其包容的理論多元性為公共政策研究提供了獨特的分析視角和框架，具有較高的推介價值。在梳理因果過程追蹤方法發展脈絡的基礎上，本文選取了近期發表在著名國際學術期刊上的4篇關於因果過程追蹤方法的學術論文，著重評介這一方法在公共政策學術研究中的價值和操作策略，以期推動中國公共政策研究的方法論多元化。
Public policy research, like other social sciences, seeks to explain causal mechanisms. However, real-world public policy processes are extremely complex, making it difficult for traditional quantitative methods to fully elucidate causality. The recent years have seen a burgeoning of causal process tracing (CPT) as an abductive reasoning method in multi-method research. Tracing events within cases, the CPT method seeks to elucidate causal mechanisms through a rigorous set of analytical protocols. The methodological strength of CPT lies in its ability to overcome missing variable errors and false causality. Highly useful in bridging the gaps between qualitative and quantitative approaches, the use of CPT is not bound by political contexts and therefore is highly recommended for the policy research community. Built on a concise review of CPT, this article selects four excellent research articles recently published in leading international journals. With the goal of promoting methodological diversity in China’s public policy research, the article discusses the methodological value of the CPT method, as well as its operational strategies in public policy research. Copyright © 2020 清華大學.